STUCK! Belief Perseverance and the Scottish Government’s Denial of Reality

The psychological concept of belief perseverance is a well-known and well established psychological theory which goes some way to explaining the behavioural tendency of some individuals to cling on to their beliefs, even when they have received contradictory and convincing evidence that challenges those beliefs. Individuals maintain belief perseverance by generating new rationalisations for their thoughts and perceptions and by downplaying and denying data which contradicts their established mindset. Individuals may also reframe some their perceptions of reality to fit their mindset.

The Scottish Government is STUCK in the mire of outdated beliefs

Belief perseverance seems highly relevant to the culture of our Scottish political leadership now coming under the spotlight. Peter Murrell’s conviction and incarceration is likely a direct outcome of belief perseverence. In her recent book, Keeping the Dream Alive, Joanna Cherry documents that, any attempt to question or scrutinise SNP finances, or the leadership’s obsession with gender ideology, were viciously and ruthlessly rubbished and shut down by Sturgeon and her entourage.

There is little doubt that belief perseverance has featured prominently in the Scottish Government’s fixation with gender identity ideology and their need to ensure its insertion throughout all our public services. The Scottish public has been lied to and hectored in the cause of certain political leaders’ need to maintain the specific mindset that gender identity ideology and its promotion is a good thing and the proof of a ‘progressive’ society.

This has resulted in education, social work, prison and NHS policies blatantly and stupidly prioritising self-identified gender over biological sex. This has been done to the population despite clear evidence of harm (eg men assaulting women in prison) and despite extensive research highlighting there is no evidence that gender identity exists. In education and social work, the Scottish Government continues to persist in actively pursuing a harmful ideological agenda promoting social transition and affirmation of changing sex via its funding of organisations such as LGBTYS and TIE. This flies directly in the face of the evidence produced by the Cass Report and extensive recent Finnish research.

All of this has been perpetrated by the Scottish Government and its public services in defiance of robust international evidence, legal clarifications, and safeguarding concerns. This has resulted in institutional reality denial at a national level with major harm to child safeguarding, women’s rights, clinical integrity, and arguably, the sanity and mental wellbeing of society itself.

Below is a classic belief perseverance profile demonstrated by our Scottish political leaders:

1. Political inflexibility and escalation of commitment

Our leaders have continued with useless and/or damaging policies rather than admit they were in error.

2. Impaired decision-making in a crises

They have used data and information selectively that fits their preconceptions. This has resulted in reality denial and early warning signals have been missed.

3. Resistance to expert advice and evidence

An affirmation echo chamber was established by those in power (eg LGBTYS, TIE) as opposed to respected professionals (eg Cass Report, ScotPAG!). This has weakened the quality of government policy development and planning.

4. Polarisation and Rhetoric

Leaders have doubled down on contested claims and relied only on those who agree with them.

5. Persistant Denial

This has eroded public trust and has led to scandals. The public is beginning to perceive the political leadership as rigid and incompetent.

All of the above behaviours have resulted in decision making that is based on short-term, panicked responses and performative politics instead of effective governance. As a result in our public services there have fewer checks, reduced effective risk assessment and mismanagement of resources.

Overcoming belief perseverance requires deliberate strategies such as: close consideration of alternative explanations; commitment to data and robust evidence updates; and separation of policy development and planning from activism. Scotland’s government could lead by example by implementing evidence based, not activist based reforms; restoring sex-based data collection, and prioritizing child safeguarding over ideology.

Scotland could still save itself from becoming a second rate society but will our current government leaders allow that to happen?

References

Cass Review, 2024, Independent review of gender identity services for children and young people: Final Report

Care Inspectorate, 2024, Guidance for Children and Young People’s Services on the Inclusion of Transgender Including Non-Binary Young People.

Scottish Government Guidance (revised), 2025 Supporting Transgender Pupils in Schools.

Carolyn Brown ScotPAG Convenor